Who will be the Next Global Power?

The most common universal skepticism is who's going to run the next world order?" This question has been a source of curiosity and concern for many people, especially in an era of increasing complexity and global interdependence. In this ever-changing landscape, understanding the dynamics of global power, both in the past and present, is essential to discern the potential future trajectories of our world. The question of who runs the world has historically been relatively straightforward. For much of the 20th century, the world was characterized by bipolarity, with two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, dominating global affairs. This bipolar world order was marked by the ideological struggle of the Cold War, with the United States and the Soviets each leading their respective blocs and establishing their own rules and norms. However, the end of the Cold War marked a significant shift in the global order. The Soviet Union collapsed, leaving the United States as the sole superpower, which ushered in a unipolar world order. The United States, during this period, held significant sway in shaping global institutions, setting the agenda for global trade, and promoting its own values. Around 15 years ago, the world began to witness a shift in the global power structure. The United States seemed less eager to continue its role as the world's policeman or the arbiter of global trade. Other countries, most notably Russia and China, were on the rise, and they increasingly challenged existing global norms and institutions. This shift resulted from several key developments:

• Russia's discontent with its lack of integration into Western institutions, coupled with its decline as a great power, led to frustration and an assertive foreign policy.

China's integration into U.S.-led global institutions, with the expectation that its growing wealth and power would lead to a convergence of values with the United States. However, tensions emerged as China's rise challenged American dominance.

The rise of populist movements and disenfranchisement among citizens in the United States and other wealthy democracies, due to globalization's impact, which led to questions of legitimacy in government and leadership.

These three factors have become the primary drivers of geopolitical tensions and conflicts in the world today, contributing to what many describe as a "leaderless world." However, this situation is unlikely to persist indefinitely.

The next decade is likely to bring about a more complex world order, which defies easy categorization. Rather than a bipolar, unipolar, or multipolar world, we are likely to see three distinct but interconnected orders:

Global Security Order: The United States and its allies currently dominate the global security order. The U.S. remains the only country capable of deploying its military forces worldwide, making it the primary guarantor of global security. While China is growing its military capabilities in Asia, it does not match the U.S.'s global reach. As a result, the global security order remains unipolar.

Global Economic Order: The global economic order, on the other hand, is more multipolar, with various powerful players. The United States, China, the European Union, India, Japan, and others are all influential in the global economy. Economic interdependence and competition between these major players shape the economic landscape.

Digital Order: The digital order is an emerging and increasingly influential dimension of the world order. This order is not governed by traditional governments but by technology companies. They wield immense power over global communication, data collection, and identity shaping. The actions and behavior of these technology companies will have a profound impact on our societies, politics, and freedom.

The interactions and tensions between these three orders will define the future of our world. The U.S. is likely to use its national security influence to shape the global economic order further, while China will use its economic leverage to exert diplomatic power. Other players, such as the European Union, India, and Japan, will play key roles in balancing these dynamics.

Of the three orders, the digital order is the most uncertain and potentially disruptive. Technology companies have become the most powerful actors on the global stage, shaping not only how we communicate but also who we are. They hold an unprecedented amount of data on individuals and societies and wield enormous influence over public discourse. The future of this order depends on whether these companies align with governments, pursue global business models, or become the dominant actors in their own right. In conclusion, the question of who runs the world has become more complex and multifaceted than ever before. Understanding the dynamics of global power across these three orders is crucial for anticipating the future and addressing the challenges that arise. As we navigate this evolving world order, we must carefully consider the implications of these changes on our societies, values, and freedom, and actively engage in discussions and decision-making to shape the direction of our world.